Description
Objectives
To introduce the methods and the tools for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. At the completion of the course, the students should be able to: - describe the basic elements of the general methodologies for risk assessment and management; - represent and analyze complex systems with the qualitative and quantitative methods; - use tools for decision support with uncertainty; - apply methods and tools for uncertainty modeling and propagation analysis.
Syllabus
Definition and quantification of risk. Methodology for the analysis and management of risks. Qualitative aspects of risk analysis. Preliminary hazard identification. Quantification and analysis of systems. Systems analysis and construction of fault-trees and event tree analysis. Introduction to Bayesian Networks. Bayesian Networks in risk analysis. Influence diagrams and decision trees. Uncertainty modeling. Monte Carlo simulation method for risk analysis and uncertainty propagation. Sensitivity analysis. Human factors in risk analysis. Task analysis. Techniques for assessing Human reliability. THERP and HEART methods.
Cross Competence Component
The UC allows the development of transversal competences on: - Critical and innovative thinking and problem-solving approaches, in the development of case studies and course project. - Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Skills (oral and written communication, organizational and teamwork, self-discipline, time management, perseverance, self-motivation skills) acquired by the development of the group project and its presentation and discussion. - Information and media literacy developed through information search and by using computer tools in the development of the project, preparation of the report and presentation. The assessment percentage associated with these competences is around 20%.
Ethical Principles
All members of a group are responsible for all group's work. In any assessment every student should honestly disclose any help received or sources used. In an oral assessment, every student shall be able to present and answer questions about the entire assignment and solution.