Modelos de Simulação de Sistemas

Objectives

• To develop familiarity and critical understanding of core concepts and techniques of computer simulation (discrete-event and system dynamics), along with support tools (namely specialized software packages). • To develop an informed understanding of simulation frameworks for: problems formulation and solving; model structuring and implementation; design of experiments, results analysis and evaluation. • To develop the ability to relate concepts to practice and skills to model real-world complex problems, involving uncertainty and risk, in a structured way and to provide sound recommendations. • To promote competences in team work.

Syllabus

I - Discrete-event simulation models (with fixed and variable time- increments), including: • Paradigms and frameworks for structuring discrete simulation models based on events, activities and processes. • Techniques for random numbers and variates generation and Monte Carlo methods • Overview of computer simulation software packages, namely SIMUL8 • Design of simulation experiments and outputs analysis II - Elements on queuing systems, including basic analytical models (M/M/1, M/G/1, M/M/S) and analysis frameworks for complex systems of queuing networks III - System Dynamics Modelling, including: • System’s structure and governing principles (cause-effect relationships) and feedback modelling with causal loop diagrams • Basic forms of feedback loops and corresponding typical behaviour of response variables • More complex structures modelling with coupled feedback loops; model formulation, representation, implementation and testing; applications on policy analysis

Prerequisites

Basic background on Statistics.

Cross Competence Component

This course, particularly in the group project work component but also in approaches to the formulation and resolution of problems in classes and final examination, should contribute to the development of soft skills in “Critical and Innovative Thinking” (particularly with regard to structured and innovative approaches to problem solving, but also of strategic thinking (in problem formulation), critical thinking (namely in the analysis of results) and creativity), “Interpersonal Skills” (written communication, teamwork and leadership), “Intrapersonal Skills” (productivity and time management, stress management, pro-activity and initiative) and “Information and Media Literacy” (use of computer tools from the user's perspective, structuring and formatting of documents/reports). The assessment weight associated with these skills should be around 15%.

Laboratorial Component

Use of specialized simulation software, representing about 15% of the contact hours.

Programming And Computing Component

Design, specification and computational implementation of a simulation model for the project work, which is then explored to obtain results that must be analyzed for extracting conclusions and recommendations.

Ethical Principles

All members of a group are responsible for the group's work. In any assessment, every student shall honestly disclose any help received and sources used. In an oral assessment, every student shall be able to present and answer questions about the entire assignment and solution.